An assessment of federal alcohol policies in Canada and priority recommendations: Results from the 3rd Canadian Alcohol Policy Evaluation Project.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically assess the Canadian federal government's current alcohol policies in relation to public health best practices. METHODS: The 2022 Canadian Alcohol Policy Evaluation (CAPE) Project assessed federal alcohol policies across 10 domains. Policy domains were weighted according to evidence for their relative impact, including effectiveness and scope. A detailed scoring rubric of best practices was developed and externally reviewed by international experts. Policy data were collected between June and December 2022, using official legislation, government websites, and data sources identified from previous iterations of CAPE as sources. Contacts within relevant government departments provided any additional data sources, reviewed the accuracy and completeness of the data, and provided amendments as needed. Data were scored independently by members of the research team. Final policy scores were tabulated and presented as a weighted overall average score and as unweighted domain-specific scores. RESULTS: Compared to public health best practices, the federal government of Canada scored 37% overall. The three most impactful domains-(1) pricing and taxation, (2) marketing and advertising controls, and (3) impaired driving countermeasures-received some of the lowest scores (39%, 10%, and 40%, respectively). Domain-specific scores varied considerably from 0% for minimum legal age policies to 100% for controls on physical availability of alcohol. CONCLUSION: Many evidence-informed alcohol policies have not been adopted, or been adopted only partially, by the Canadian federal government. Urgent adoption of the recommended policies is needed to prevent and reduce the enormous health, social, and economic costs of alcohol use in Canada.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Évaluer de manière systématique les politiques sur l'alcool actuelles du gouvernement fédéral canadien dans le cadre de pratiques de santé publique exemplaires. MéTHODES: Le projet de l'Évaluation des politiques canadiennes sur l'alcool 2022 a évalué les politiques fédérales sur l'alcool dans dix domaines. Ces domaines de politiques ont été pondérés en fonction de preuves sur leurs répercussions relatives, notamment leur efficacité et leur portée. Une échelle d'évaluation descriptive détaillée de pratiques exemplaires a été élaborée et examinée à l'externe. Entre juin et décembre 2022, des données sur les politiques ont été recueillies dans la législation officielle, sur des sites Web du gouvernement et au moyen de sources identifiées comme telles au cours des itérations précédentes du projet de l'Évaluation des politiques canadiennes sur l'alcool. Des personnes-ressources au sein des ministères concernés ont communiqué d'autres sources de données, examiné l'exactitude et le caractère exhaustif de ces données et apporté les modifications nécessaires. Les données ont été évaluées indépendamment par des membres de l'équipe de recherche. Les scores de politiques finaux ont été inscrits dans des tableaux et présentés sous forme d'une moyenne générale pondérée et de scores non pondérés par domaine. RéSULTATS: Comparativement aux pratiques de santé publique exemplaire, le gouvernement fédéral du Canada a obtenu un score général de 37 %. Les trois domaines susceptibles d'avoir les plus grandes répercussions, à savoir 1) la fixation des prix et la taxation, 2) le contrôle du marketing et de la publicité, et 3) les mesures contre la conduite avec facultés affaiblies, se sont vu attribuer parmi les scores les plus bas (39 %, 10 %, et 40 % respectivement). Les scores par domaine variaient considérablement, allant de 0 % pour les politiques sur l'âge minimum légal à 100 % pour le contrôle de la disponibilité physique de l'alcool. CONCLUSION: De nombreuses politiques sur l'alcool reposant sur des preuves n'ont pas été adoptées, ou l'ont été seulement partiellement, par le gouvernement fédéral canadien. Il est urgent d'appliquer les politiques recommandées pour prévenir et réduire les énormes coûts sanitaires, sociaux et économiques de la consommation d'alcool au Canada.

Reducing Alcohol Use to Prevent Cancer Deaths: Estimated Effects Among U.S. Adults.

INTRODUCTION: The Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2020-2025 recommends non-drinking or no more than 2 drinks for men or 1 drink for women in a day. However, even at lower levels, alcohol use increases the risk for certain cancers. This study estimated mean annual alcohol-attributable cancer deaths and the number of cancer deaths that could potentially be prevented if all U.S. adults who drank in excess of the Dietary Guidelines had instead consumed alcohol to correspond with typical consumption of those who drink within the recommended limits. METHODS: Among U.S. residents aged ≥20 years, mean annual alcohol-attributable cancer deaths during 2020-2021 that could have been prevented with hypothetical reductions in alcohol use were estimated. Mean daily alcohol consumption prevalence estimates from the 2020-2021 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, adjusted to per capita alcohol sales to address underreporting of drinking, were applied to relative risks to calculate population-attributable fractions for cancers that can occur from drinking alcohol. Analyses were conducted during February-April 2023. RESULTS: In the U.S., an estimated 20,216 cancer deaths were alcohol-attributable/year during 2020-2021 (men: 14,562 [72.0%]; women: 5,654 [28.0%]). Approximately 16,800 deaths (83% of alcohol-attributable cancer deaths, 2.8% of all cancer deaths) could have been prevented/year if adults who drank alcohol in excess of the Dietary Guidelines had instead reduced their consumption to ≤2 drinks/day for men or ≤1 drink/day for women. Approximately 650 additional deaths could have been prevented annually if men consumed 1 drink/day, instead of 2. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing evidence-based alcohol policies (e.g., increasing alcohol taxes, regulating alcohol outlet density) to decrease drinking could reduce alcohol-attributable cancers, complementing clinical interventions.

A drink equals how many cigarettes? Equating mortality risks from alcohol and tobacco use in Canada.

Objective: To quantify and communicate risk equivalencies for alcohol-and tobacco-attributable mortality by comparing per standard drinks consumed to per number of cigarettes smoked in Canada. Methods: Alcohol-and tobacco-attributable premature deaths (≤75 years of age) and years of life lost (YLL) were estimated using a lifetime risk modeling approach. Alcohol-attributable death statistics were obtained from the 2023 Canadian Guidance on Alcohol and Health data source. Tobacco-attributable death statistics were derived from the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT) model. Results: The risk of alcohol use on premature death and YLL increased non-linearly with the number of drinks consumed, while the risk for tobacco use on these two measures increased linearly with the number of cigarettes smoked. Males who consumed 5 drinks/day-a standard drink contains 13.45 grams of alcohol in Canada-had an equivalent risk as smoking 4.9 cigarettes/day (when modeling for premature death) and 5.1 cigarettes/day (when modeling for YLL). Females who consumed 5 drinks/day experienced an equivalent risk as smoking 4.2 cigarettes/day for premature deaths and YLL. At all levels of alcohol consumption females and males who consumed <5 drinks/day have less risks from consuming a standard drink than from smoking a cigarette. For males who consumed 5 drinks/day, the increased risks of death from per drink consumed and per cigarette smoked were equal. Conclusion: Risk equivalencies comparing alcohol use to tobacco use could help people who drink improve their knowledge and understanding of the mortality risks associated with increased number of drinks consumed per day.

Deaths from Excessive Alcohol Use - United States, 2016-2021.

Deaths from causes fully attributable to alcohol use have increased during the past 2 decades in the United States, particularly from 2019 to 2020, concurrent with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, previous studies of trends have not assessed underlying causes of deaths that are partially attributable to alcohol use, such as injuries or certain types of cancer. CDC's Alcohol-Related Disease Impact application was used to estimate the average annual number and age-standardized rate of deaths from excessive alcohol use in the United States based on 58 alcohol-related causes of death during three periods (2016-2017, 2018-2019, and 2020-2021). Average annual number of deaths from excessive alcohol use increased 29.3%, from 137,927 during 2016-2017 to 178,307 during 2020-2021; age-standardized alcohol-related death rates increased from 38.1 to 47.6 per 100,000 population. During this time, deaths from excessive alcohol use among males increased 26.8%, from 94,362 per year to 119,606, and among females increased 34.7%, from 43,565 per year to 58,701. Implementation of evidence-based policies that reduce the availability and accessibility of alcohol and increase its price (e.g., policies that reduce the number and concentration of places selling alcohol and increase alcohol taxes) could reduce excessive alcohol use and alcohol-related deaths.

Distributions of alcohol use and alcohol-caused death and disability in Canada: Defining alcohol harm density functions and new perspectives on the prevention paradox.

AIMS: The aims of this study were to examine the distribution of alcohol use and to define 'harm density functions' representing distributions of alcohol-caused health harm in Canada, by sex, towards better understanding which groups of drinkers experience the highest aggregate harms. DESIGN: This was an epidemiological modeling study using survey and administrative data on alcohol exposure, death and disability and risk relationships from epidemiological meta-analyses. SETTING: This work took place in Canada, 2019. PARTICIPANTS: Canadians aged 15 years or older participated. MEASUREMENTS: Measures included modeled life-time mean daily alcohol use in grams of pure alcohol (ethanol) per day, alcohol-caused deaths and alcohol-caused disability-adjusted life-years. FINDINGS: As a life-time average, more than half of Canadians aged 15+ (62.8% females, 46.9% males) use fewer than 10 g of pure alcohol per day (g/day). By volume, the top 10% of the population consume 45.9% of the total ethanol among males and 47.1% of the total ethanol among females. The remaining 90% of the population experience a slim majority of alcohol-caused deaths (males 55.3%, females 46.9%). Alcohol harm density functions compose the size of the using population and the risk experienced at each volume level to show that the population-level harm experienced is highest for males at 25 g/day and females at 13 g/day. CONCLUSIONS: Almost 50% of alcohol use in Canada is concentrated among the highest 10% of drinkers, but more than half of the alcohol-caused deaths in Canada in 2019 were experienced by the bottom 90% of the population by average volume, providing evidence for the prevention paradox. New alcohol harm density functions provide insight into the aggregate health harm experienced across the mean alcohol use spectrum and may therefore be used to help determine where alcohol policies should be targeted for highest efficacy.

Canada's Alcohol Deficit, 2007-2020: Social Cost, Public Revenue, Magnitudes of Alcohol Use, and the Per-Drink Net Deficit for a Fourteen-Year Period.

OBJECTIVE: Governments generate substantial revenue from the distribution and sale of alcoholic beverages. However, the use of this alcohol results in considerable public costs for health care, criminal justice, and economic loss of production. Because comparisons of these two sides of the same coin are limited, this study aims to estimate this net alcohol surplus or deficit in Canada and each province/territory for a 14-year study period. METHOD: Net government revenue from alcohol sales and net social costs of alcohol use were estimated for Canada and each province/territory for all years of study from 2007 to 2020, and all dollar figures were Consumer Price Index-adjusted to 2020 Canadian dollars (CAD). The net alcohol surplus/deficit was estimated as the difference. Per capita recorded alcohol sold was from administrative sources and used as proxy to calculate alcohol used by adding an estimate of unrecorded use and converting to Canadian standard drinks (CSDs). The per-drink net deficit was the net deficit divided by CSDs. RESULTS: In Canada in 2020, governments generated CAD $13.3 billion in revenue from alcohol sales, but this was offset by $19.7 billion in social costs attributable to alcohol use. This "alcohol deficit" increased by 122.0% in real-dollar terms over the study period and reached a high of $6.4 billion in 2020. In 2020, the magnitude of the alcohol used in Canada was 16.8 billion CSDs. Each of these drinks resulted in a public net deficit of $0.379. CONCLUSIONS: Both alcohol use and the resulting public alcohol deficit are high in Canada. To mitigate these losses to the well-being of Canadians and their economy, government planners, regulators, and policymakers must urgently deploy evidence-based alcohol policies toward reducing the magnitude of alcohol used in Canada.

Why do only some cohort studies find health benefits from low volume alcohol use? A systematic review and meta-analysis of study characteristics that may bias mortality risk estimates.

OBJECTIVE: Assumptions about alcohol's health benefits profoundly influence global disease burden estimates and drinking guidelines. Utilising theory and evidence, we identify and test study characteristics that may bias estimates of all-cause mortality risk associated with low volume drinking. METHOD: We identified 107 longitudinal studies by systematic review with 724 estimates of association between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality for 4,838,825 participants with 425,564 recorded deaths. "Higher quality" studies had a mean cohort age of ≤55 years, followed-up beyond 55 years, and excluded former and occasional drinkers from abstainer reference groups. "Low volume" alcohol use was defined as between one drink per week (>1.30g ethanol/day) and two drinks per day (<25g ethanol/day). Mixed linear regression was used to model relative risks (RRs) of mortality for subgroups of higher versus lower quality studies. RESULTS: As predicted, studies with younger cohorts and separating former and occasional drinkers from abstainers estimated similar mortality risk for low volume drinkers (RR=0.98, 0.87-1.11) as abstainers. Studies not meeting these quality criteria estimated significantly lower risk for low volume drinkers (RR=0.84, 0.79-0.89). In exploratory analyses, studies controlling for smoking and/or socio-economic status had significantly reduced mortality risks for low volume drinkers. However, mean RR estimates for low volume drinkers in non-smoking cohorts were above 1.0 (RR=1.16, 0.91-1.41). CONCLUSIONS: Studies with lifetime selection biases may create misleading positive health associations. These biases pervade the field of alcohol epidemiology and can confuse communications about health risks. Future research should investigate whether smoking status mediates, moderates or confounds alcohol-mortality risk relationships.

New perspectives on how to formulate alcohol drinking guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Low-Risk Alcohol Drinking Guidelines (LRDGs) aim to reduce the harms caused by alcohol. However, considerable discrepancies exist in the 'low-risk' thresholds employed by different countries. ARGUMENT/ANALYSIS: Drawing upon Canada's LRDGs update process, the current paper offers the following propositions for debate regarding the establishment of 'low-risk' thresholds in national guidelines: (1) as an indicator of health loss, years of life lost (YLL) has several advantages that could make it more suitable for setting guidelines than deaths, premature deaths or disability adjusted years of life (DALYs) lost. (2) Presenting age-specific guidelines may not be the most appropriate way of providing LRDGs. (3) Given past overemphasis on the so-called protective effects of alcohol on health, presenting cause-specific guidelines may not be appropriate compared with a 'whole health' effect derived from a weighted composite risk function comprising conditions that are causally related to alcohol consumption. (4) To help people reduce their alcohol use, presenting different risk zones associated with alcohol consumption instead of a single low risk threshold may be advantageous. CONCLUSIONS: National LRDGs should be based on years of life lost and should be neither age-specific nor cause-specific. We recommend using risk zones rather than a single drinking threshold to help people assess their own risk and encourage the adoption of behaviours with positive health impacts across the alcohol use spectrum.

The distribution of alcohol-attributable healthcare encounters across the population of alcohol users in Ontario, Canada.

Recent evidence suggests there may be no safe level of alcohol use as even low levels are associated with increased risk for harm. However, the magnitude of the population-level health burden from lower levels of alcohol use is poorly understood. The objective was to estimate the distribution of alcohol-attributable healthcare encounters (emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations) across the population of alcohol users aged 15+ in Ontario, Canada. Using the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies (InterMAHP) tool, wholly and partially alcohol-attributable healthcare encounters were estimated across alcohol users: (1) former (no past-year use); (2) low volume (≤67.3 g ethanol/week); (3) medium volume (>67.3-134.5 g ethanol/week for women and >67.3-201.8 g ethanol/week for men); and (4) high volume (>134.5 g ethanol/week for women and >201.8 g ethanol/week for men). The alcohol-attributable healthcare burden was distributed across the population of alcohol users. A small population of high volume users (23% of men, 13% of women) were estimated to have contributed to the greatest proportion of alcohol-attributable healthcare encounters, particularly among men (men: 65% of ED visits and 71% of hospitalizations, women: 49% of ED visits and 50% of hospitalizations). The 71% of women low and medium volumes users were estimated to have contributed to a substantial proportion of alcohol-attributable healthcare encounters (47% of ED visits and 34% of hospitalizations). Findings provide support for universal alcohol policies (i.e., delivered to the entire population) for reducing population-level alcohol-attributable harm in addition to targeted policies for high-risk users.

A systematic review of relative risks for the relationship between chronic alcohol use and the occurrence of disease.

Alcohol use is causally linked to the development of and mortality from numerous diseases. The aim of this study is to provide an update to a previous systematic review of meta-analyses that quantify the sex-specific dose-response risk relationships between chronic alcohol use and disease occurrence and/or mortality. An updated systematic search of multiple databases was performed in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses criteria to identify meta-analyses published from January 1, 2017, to March 8, 2021, which quantified the risk relationships between chronic alcohol use and the risk of disease occurrence and/or mortality. This systematic review was not preregistered. The comparator was people who have never consumed at least one standard drink of alcohol. Measurements included relative risks, odds ratios, and hazard ratios of disease occurrence and/or mortality based on long-term alcohol intake measured in grams per day. The systematic search yielded 5953 articles, of which 14 were included in the narrative review. All diseases showed an increased risk of occurrence as alcohol use increased. At all doses examined, alcohol had a significant detrimental effect on tuberculosis, lower respiratory infections, oral cavity and pharyngeal cancers, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer, laryngeal cancer, epilepsy, hypertension, liver cirrhosis, and pancreatitis (among men). For ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and intracerebral hemorrhage, protective effects from low-dose chronic alcohol use among both men and women were observed. Low-dose alcohol consumption also had a protective effect for diabetes mellitus and pancreatitis among women (approximately to 50 g/day and 30 g/day, respectively). Alcohol use increases the risk of numerous infectious and noncommunicable diseases in a dose-response manner. Higher levels of alcohol use have a clear detrimental impact on health; however, at lower levels of use, alcohol can have both disease-specific protective and detrimental effects.

Estimating alcohol-attributable injury deaths: A comparison of epidemiological methods.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Injuries often involve alcohol, but determining the proportion caused by alcohol is difficult. Several approaches have been used to determine the causal role of alcohol, but these methods have not been compared directly with one another. Such a comparison would be useful for understanding the strengths and comparability of different approaches. This study compared estimates of average annual alcohol-attributable deaths in the United States from injuries during 2015-19 using a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) method compared with a population attributable fraction (PAF) approach. METHODS: For the BAC method, we used a direct method involving the proportion of decedents with a high blood alcohol concentration (BAC; e.g. ≥ 0.10%). For the PAF approach, we compared the use of unadjusted survey data with average consumption data adjusted using alcohol sales data to account for underreporting and also accounting for the underreporting of binge drinking. Survey data were from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and mortality data were from the National Vital Statistics System. RESULTS: The number of alcohol-attributable injury deaths using the direct method (48 516 deaths annually) was similar to that using PAF methods (47 879 deaths annually), but only when alcohol use measures were adjusted using alcohol sales data. Furthermore, estimates were similar for cause-specific categories of deaths, including non-motor vehicle unintentional injuries and motor vehicle crashes. Among PAF methods, excessive drinking accounted for 38.3% of injury deaths using unadjusted survey data, but 64.8% of injury deaths using adjusted data. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of alcohol-attributable injury deaths from a direct method and from a population attributable fraction method that adjusts for alcohol use based on alcohol sales data appear to be comparable.

The public-private decision for alcohol retail systems: Examining the economic, health, and social impacts of alternative systems in Finland.

Background: Organising alcohol retail systems with more or less public ownership has implications for health and the economy. The aim of the present study was to estimate the economic, health, and social impacts of alcohol use in Finland in 2018 (baseline), and in two alternative scenarios in which current partial public ownership of alcohol retail sales is either increased or fully privatised. Methods: Baseline alcohol-attributable harms and costs were estimated across five categories of death, disability, and criminal justice. Two alternate alcohol retail systems were defined as privately owned stores selling: (1) only low strength alcoholic beverages (public ownership scenario, similar to Sweden); or (2) all beverages (private ownership scenario). Policy analyses were conducted to estimate changes in alcohol use per capita. Health and economic impacts were modelled using administrative data and epidemiological modelling. Results: In Finland in 2018, alcohol use was estimated to be responsible for €1.51 billion (95% Uncertainty Estimates: €1.43 billion, €1.58 billion) in social cost, 3,846 deaths, and 270,652 criminal justice events. In the public ownership scenario, it was estimated that alcohol use would decline by 15.8% (11.8%, 19.7%) and social cost by €384.3 million (€189.5 million, €559.2 million). Full privatisation was associated with an increase in alcohol use of 9.0% (6.2%, 11.8%) and an increase in social cost of €289.7 million (€140.8 million, €439.5 million). Conclusion: The outcome from applying a novel analytical approach suggests that more public ownership of the alcohol retail system may lead to significant decreases in alcohol-caused death, disability, crime, and social costs. Conversely, full privatisation of the ownership model would lead to increased harm and costs.

Association Between Daily Alcohol Intake and Risk of All-Cause Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-analyses.

Importance: A previous meta-analysis of the association between alcohol use and all-cause mortality found no statistically significant reductions in mortality risk at low levels of consumption compared with lifetime nondrinkers. However, the risk estimates may have been affected by the number and quality of studies then available, especially those for women and younger cohorts. Objective: To investigate the association between alcohol use and all-cause mortality, and how sources of bias may change results. Data Sources: A systematic search of PubMed and Web of Science was performed to identify studies published between January 1980 and July 2021. Study Selection: Cohort studies were identified by systematic review to facilitate comparisons of studies with and without some degree of controls for biases affecting distinctions between abstainers and drinkers. The review identified 107 studies of alcohol use and all-cause mortality published from 1980 to July 2021. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Mixed linear regression models were used to model relative risks, first pooled for all studies and then stratified by cohort median age (<56 vs ≥56 years) and sex (male vs female). Data were analyzed from September 2021 to August 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Relative risk estimates for the association between mean daily alcohol intake and all-cause mortality. Results: There were 724 risk estimates of all-cause mortality due to alcohol intake from the 107 cohort studies (4 838 825 participants and 425 564 deaths available) for the analysis. In models adjusting for potential confounding effects of sampling variation, former drinker bias, and other prespecified study-level quality criteria, the meta-analysis of all 107 included studies found no significantly reduced risk of all-cause mortality among occasional (>0 to <1.3 g of ethanol per day; relative risk [RR], 0.96; 95% CI, 0.86-1.06; P = .41) or low-volume drinkers (1.3-24.0 g per day; RR, 0.93; P = .07) compared with lifetime nondrinkers. In the fully adjusted model, there was a nonsignificantly increased risk of all-cause mortality among drinkers who drank 25 to 44 g per day (RR, 1.05; P = .28) and significantly increased risk for drinkers who drank 45 to 64 and 65 or more grams per day (RR, 1.19 and 1.35; P < .001). There were significantly larger risks of mortality among female drinkers compared with female lifetime nondrinkers (RR, 1.22; P = .03). Conclusions and Relevance: In this updated systematic review and meta-analysis, daily low or moderate alcohol intake was not significantly associated with all-cause mortality risk, while increased risk was evident at higher consumption levels, starting at lower levels for women than men.

Trends in alcohol-attributable hospitalisations and emergency department visits by age, sex, drinking group and health condition in Ontario, Canada.

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol-attributable harms are increasing in Canada. We described trends in alcohol-attributable hospitalisations and emergency department (ED) visits by age, sex, drinking group, attribution and health condition. METHODS: Hospitalisation and ED visits for partially or wholly alcohol-attributable health conditions by age and sex were obtained from population-based health administrative data for individuals aged 15+ in Ontario, Canada. Population-level alcohol exposure was estimated using per capita alcohol sales and alcohol use data. We estimated the number and rate of alcohol-attributable hospitalisations (2008-2018) and ED visits (2008-2019) using the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies (InterMAHP). RESULTS: Over the study period, the modelled rates of alcohol-attributable health-care encounters were higher in males, but increased faster in females. Specifically, rates of alcohol-attributable hospitalisations and ED visits increased by 300% (19-76 per 100,000) and 37% (774-1,064 per 100,000) in females, compared to 20% (322-386 per 100,000) and 2% (2563-2626 per 100,000) in males, respectively. Alcohol-attributable ED visit rates were highest among individuals aged 15-34, however, increased faster among individuals aged 65+ (females: 266%; males: 44%) than 15-34 years (females:+17%; males: -16%). High-volume drinkers had the highest rates of alcohol-attributable health-care encounters; yet, low-/medium-volume drinkers contributed substantial hospitalisations (11%) and ED visits (36%), with increasing rates of ED visits in females drinking low/medium volumes. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol-attributable health-care encounters increased overall, and faster among females, adults aged 65+ and low-/medium-volume drinkers. Monitoring trends across subpopulations is imperative to inform equitable interventions to mitigate alcohol-attributable harms.

Estimated Deaths Attributable to Excessive Alcohol Use Among US Adults Aged 20 to 64 Years, 2015 to 2019.

Importance: Alcohol consumption is a leading preventable cause of death in the US, and death rates from fully alcohol-attributable causes (eg, alcoholic liver disease) have increased in the past decade, including among adults aged 20 to 64 years. However, a comprehensive assessment of alcohol-attributable deaths among this population, including from partially alcohol-attributable causes, is lacking. Objective: To estimate the mean annual number of deaths from excessive alcohol use relative to total deaths among adults aged 20 to 64 years overall; by sex, age group, and state; and as a proportion of total deaths. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cross-sectional study of mean annual alcohol-attributable deaths among US residents between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2019, used population-attributable fractions. Data were analyzed from January 6, 2021, to May 2, 2022. Exposures: Mean daily alcohol consumption among the 2 089 287 respondents to the 2015-2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System was adjusted using national per capita alcohol sales to correct for underreporting. Adjusted mean daily alcohol consumption prevalence estimates were applied to relative risks to generate alcohol-attributable fractions for chronic partially alcohol-attributable conditions. Alcohol-attributable fractions based on blood alcohol concentrations were used to assess acute partially alcohol-attributable deaths. Main Outcomes and Measures: Alcohol-attributable deaths for 58 causes of death, as defined in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Alcohol-Related Disease Impact application. Mortality data were from the National Vital Statistics System. Results: During the 2015-2019 study period, of 694 660 mean deaths per year among adults aged 20 to 64 years (men: 432 575 [66.3%]; women: 262 085 [37.7%]), an estimated 12.9% (89 697 per year) were attributable to excessive alcohol consumption. This percentage was higher among men (15.0%) than women (9.4%). By state, alcohol-attributable deaths ranged from 9.3% of total deaths in Mississippi to 21.7% in New Mexico. Among adults aged 20 to 49 years, alcohol-attributable deaths (44 981 mean annual deaths) accounted for an estimated 20.3% of total deaths. Conclusions And Relevance: The findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that an estimated 1 in 8 total deaths among US adults aged 20 to 64 years were attributable to excessive alcohol use, including 1 in 5 deaths among adults aged 20 to 49 years. The number of premature deaths could be reduced with increased implementation of evidenced-based, population-level alcohol policies, such as increasing alcohol taxes or regulating alcohol outlet density.

Estimating alcohol-attributable liver disease mortality: A comparison of methods.

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol is a leading contributor to liver disease, however, estimating the proportion of liver disease deaths attributable to alcohol use can be methodologically challenging. METHODS: We compared three approaches for estimating alcohol-attributable liver disease deaths (AALDD), using the USA as an example. One involved summing deaths from alcoholic liver disease and a proportion from unspecified cirrhosis (direct method); two used population attributable fraction (PAF) methodology, including one that adjusted for per capita alcohol sales. For PAFs, the 2011-2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and per capita sales from the Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System were used to derive alcohol consumption prevalence estimates at various levels (excessive alcohol use was defined by medium and high consumption levels). Prevalence estimates were used with relative risks from two meta-analyses, and PAFs were applied to the 2011-2015 average annual number of deaths from alcoholic cirrhosis and unspecified cirrhosis (using National Vital Statistics System data) to estimate AALDD. RESULTS: The number of AALDD was higher using the direct method (28 345 annually) than the PAF methods, but similar when alcohol prevalence was adjusted using per capita sales and all alcohol consumption levels were considered (e.g. 25 145 AALDD). Using the PAF method, disaggregating non-drinkers into lifetime abstainers and former drinkers to incorporate relative risks for former drinkers yielded higher AALDD estimates (e.g. 27 686) than methods with all non-drinkers combined. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Using PAF methods that adjust for per capita sales and model risks for former drinkers yield more complete and possibly more valid AALDD estimates.

Polysubstance use poisoning deaths in Canada: an analysis of trends from 2014 to 2017 using mortality data.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade, rates of drug poisoning deaths have increased dramatically in Canada. Current evidence suggests that the non-medical use of synthetic opioids, stimulants and patterns of polysubstance use are major factors contributing to this increase. METHODS: Counts of substance poisoning deaths involving alcohol, opioids, other central nervous system (CNS) depressants, cocaine, and CNS stimulants excluding cocaine, were acquired from the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database (CVSD) for the years 2014 to 2017. We used joinpoint regression analysis and the Cochrane-Armitage trend test for proportions to examine changes over time in crude mortality rates and proportions of poisoning deaths involving more than one substance. RESULTS: Between 2014 and 2017, the rate of substance poisoning deaths in Canada almost doubled from 6.4 to 11.5 deaths per 100,000 population (Average Annual Percent Change, AAPC: 23%, p < 0.05). Our analysis shows this was due to increased unintentional poisoning deaths (AAPC: 26.6%, p < 0.05) and polysubstance deaths (AAPC: 23.0%, p < 0.05). The proportion of unintentional poisoning deaths involving polysubstance use increased significantly from 38% to 58% among males (p < 0.0001) and 40% to 55% among females (p < 0.0001). Polysubstance use poisonings involving opioids and CNS stimulants (excluding cocaine) increased substantially during the study period (males AAPC: 133.1%, p < 0.01; females AAPC: 118.1%, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Increases in substance-related poisoning deaths between 2014 and 2017 were associated with polysubstance use. Increased co-use of stimulants with opioids is a key factor contributing to the epidemic of opioid deaths in Canada.

Improving Estimates of Alcohol-Attributable Deaths in the United States: Impact of Adjusting for the Underreporting of Alcohol Consumption.

OBJECTIVE: Self-reported alcohol consumption in U.S. public health surveys covers only 30%-60% of per capita alcohol sales, based on tax and shipment data. To estimate alcohol-attributable harms using alcohol-attributable fractions, accurate measures of total population consumption and the distribution of this drinking are needed. This study compared methodological approaches of adjusting self-reported survey data on alcohol consumption to better reflect sales and assessed the impact of these adjustments on the distribution of average daily consumption (ADC) levels and the number of alcohol-attributable deaths. METHOD: Prevalence estimates of ADC levels (i.e., low, medium, and high) among U.S. adults who responded to the 2011-2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS; N = 2,198,089) were estimated using six methods. BRFSS ADC estimates were adjusted using the National Alcohol Survey, per capita alcohol sales data (from the Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System), or both. Prevalence estimates for the six methods were used to estimate average annual alcohol-attributable deaths, using a population-attributable fraction approach. RESULTS: Self-reported ADC in the BRFSS accounted for 31.3% coverage of per capita alcohol sales without adjustments, 36.1% using indexed-BRFSS data, and 44.3% with National Alcohol Survey adjustments. Per capita sales adjustments decreased low ADC prevalence estimates and increased medium and high ADC prevalence estimates. Estimated alcohol-attributable deaths ranged from approximately 91,200 per year (BRFSS unadjusted; Method 1) to 125,200 per year (100% of per capita sales adjustment; Method 6). CONCLUSIONS: Adjusting ADC to reflect total U.S. alcohol consumption (e.g., adjusting to 73% of per capita sales) has implications for assessing the impact of excessive drinking on health outcomes, including alcohol-attributable death estimates.